Data as of 28 September 2026. Every figure below links to the report it comes from, so you can check it yourself.
In the first quarter of 2026, only 4.5% of software development job postings on Indeed were entry-level. That is the lowest share of any occupation Indeed Hiring Lab looked at. In the same quarter, 69.3% of software postings were senior.
If you are a new graduate or a self-taught developer trying to land a first job, that one number explains most of what you are feeling. But "junior jobs are gone" is not the whole story either. Software postings are growing again. The growth is just going somewhere else first. Here is what the data shows, and what you can do with it.
The numbers in one table
| Indicator | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Entry-level share of software dev postings (Q1 2026) | 4.5% | Indeed Hiring Lab |
| Senior share of software dev postings (Q1 2026) | 69.3% | Indeed Hiring Lab |
| Share of software posting growth (May 2025 to May 2026) from senior roles | 71% | Indeed Hiring Lab |
| Share of that growth from jobs with "AI" in the title | 37% | Indeed Hiring Lab |
| Software dev postings index, 18 Sep 2026 (Feb 2020 = 100) | 77.3 | FRED / Indeed |
| Unemployment, recent computer engineering grads | 7.8% | New York Fed |
| Unemployment, recent computer science grads | 7.0% | New York Fed |
| Unemployment / underemployment, all recent grads (Q2 2026) | ~5.6% / 42% | New York Fed |
| Employment of 22–25-year-olds in AI-exposed jobs vs trend | −19% | Stanford Digital Economy Lab |
Software hiring is recovering, but mostly for senior developers
Indeed's software development postings index stood at 77.32 on 18 September 2026, where February 2020 equals 100. So there are still about 23% fewer software postings than just before the pandemic.
The direction has changed, though. Indeed found that software postings have risen nearly 15% since Claude Code launched in February 2025, while overall job postings fell 7% over the same period. The catch is who that growth is for:
How to read the 71% figure: of every 10 new software postings added between May 2025 and May 2026, about 7 were for senior roles. Close to 4 in 10 had "AI" in the job title. (The two groups overlap, so they do not add up to 100%.)
Companies are hiring again, but they are hiring people who can already work unsupervised, often alongside AI coding tools. The entry-level door is the part that has not reopened.
Why juniors are hit hardest: fewer hires, not more firings
The strongest research on this comes from Stanford's Digital Economy Lab. Its August 2026 update, based on ADP payroll data covering millions of US workers through June 2026, found that employment of workers aged 22–25 in highly AI-exposed occupations is about 19% below where it would be if it had kept pace with less-exposed peers. The gap was 15% in July 2025, so it is still widening.
Three details from that study matter if you are job hunting:
- It happens through hiring. The adjustment "appears to operate primarily through reduced hiring of young workers rather than increased separations." People already in jobs are mostly keeping them. Fewer new ones are being opened.
- Experienced workers show no comparable gap. The same occupations are fine for people with a track record.
- It depends on how AI is used. Declines are concentrated where AI substitutes for tasks. Where AI complements workers, employment is "flat or rising".
Two honest caveats. The authors call their findings "early, descriptive indicators" rather than proof of cause, and the gap shrinks when they account for education. Indeed also notes that posting declines in AI-exposed occupations began before ChatGPT was released in late 2022, so interest rates and post-pandemic over-hiring played a part too. AI is one force here, not the only one.
This is also why layoff headlines miss the junior story. A job that is never posted does not show up in any layoff tracker.
What the degree numbers say
The New York Fed's tracker of recent graduates (ages 22–27) puts computer engineering unemployment at 7.8% and computer science at 7.0%, among the highest of the majors it tracks. Across all recent graduates, unemployment "stayed elevated at about 5.6 percent" in the second quarter of 2026, and underemployment edged up to 42%.
One thing to keep in mind: the by-major figures come from 2024 census data, released in February 2026, so they trail the market by about a year.
So is computer science still worth it? The data does not say the skills stopped paying. Senior demand is the part of the market that is growing. What it says is that the first job has become the bottleneck, and a degree alone no longer gets you through it.
Five moves the data actually supports
1. Aim at the roles that are growing
More than a third of the recent growth came from AI-titled jobs. You do not need to be a machine learning researcher to fit many of these. Being able to show that you can build with AI tools, read and review what they generate, and explain where they go wrong is already a differentiator at entry level.
2. Make your experience look like experience
Employers are hiring for a track record, so give them one. A small project with real users beats five tutorial clones. Write a proper README for each project: what it does, why you built it, what you would do differently. Our Markdown editor shows a live preview while you write, so you can check the formatting before you push it.
3. Write your resume for the filter first
With so few entry-level postings, each one draws a crowd of applicants, and many employers screen them with an applicant tracking system (ATS) before a person reads anything. Single-column layout, standard section headings, and the exact skill names from the job ad matter more than design. We covered the details in how to build an ATS-friendly resume. The resume builder exports a clean PDF with no watermark or signup, and your data stays in your browser.
4. Look where hiring plans are rising
Layoffs get the headlines, but Challenger, Gray & Christmas also tracks announced hiring. Through August 2026, US employers announced plans to hire 119,825 workers, up 37% on last year, with Technology leading at 19,751. Tech is cutting and hiring at the same time. Companies that are growing, rather than restructuring, are the better targets.
5. Plan for a longer search
In August 2026, about 1.93 million of the 7.15 million unemployed Americans (27%) had been looking for 27 weeks or more. Budget for six months, not six weeks, so you are not forced into the first offer. A simple budget tracker that shows your monthly spending by category makes that plan concrete.
The short version
- Only 4.5% of software postings were entry-level in early 2026.
- Software hiring is growing again, but 71% of the growth is senior.
- The junior squeeze comes from fewer hires, not more layoffs.
- CS and computer engineering grads face 7.0–7.8% unemployment.
- Show real projects, pass the ATS filter, target AI-titled and growing employers, and budget for a longer search.